Apple expects to sell more than 263 million iPhone 5 units - report

Asymco analysts have predicted that Apple’s target for its next iPhone is could be tough to meet

Speaking during the ongoing Apple v Samsung trial, senior vice president of worldwide marketing at Apple, Phil Schiller, revealed that when assessing sales for a new iPhone model, the company would base predictions on the fact that: "Each new generation sold approximately equal to all previous generations combined."

This led analyst firm Asymco to the conclusion that Apple expects to sell more than 263 million of its sixth-generation iPhone (dubbed iPhone 5).

Asymco started its analysis by working out the estimated iPhone sales history of each generation, and then calculating the cumulative totals of those models.

The results showed that the iPhone 3G sold nearly four times the amount of original iPhones sold by Apple, and that the iPhone 3GS went on to sell 1.6 times more units than the iPhone 3G.

The iPhone 4 has just about outsold the original iPhone, the 3G and the 3GS's sales put together, but Asymco notes that the model could continue to sell, adding to that total.

The iPhone 4S has currently sold more than the iPhone 4 by a fraction, but is only half way towards beating the cumulative total sales of its four predecessors.

Asymco predicts that Apple will sell enough iPhones 4S units by September to put the model two thirds of the way towards beating the cumulative sales of the original iPhone, the iPhone 3G, iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4.

It is expected that the iPhone 5 will launch in September, but the iPhone 4S is likely to continue to sell after this date, probably at a cheaper price, so could reach its target of 162 million units sold.

This would put the cumulative total of all five current iPhone models at more than 263 million units (if you include the predicted iPhone 4S sales expected to be made before the iPhone 5 is launched).

So, that leaves us with Apple's iPhone 5 sales target: more than 263 million units.

A previous analysis from Asymco resulted in the prediction that Apple would sell 165 million iOS units in the last half of 2012. Asymco thinks that 102 of those units will be iPhones. "Taking that forecast forward and assuming a 60 per cent growth rate, I currently have abut 200 million iPhones over the next twelve months," reads the report. "If 85 per cent of those are the next generation, that yields about 170 million iPhone 5s through mid 2013."

Asymco points out that this estimate doesn't meet Apple's target of 263 million, but if the iPhone 5 continues to sell after the seventh generation iPhone is released, as has been the case with previous models, Apple could break the 200 million mark. "There is also the question of whether the "mix" will begin to favour the older generations more," the report continues. "If that's the case, we might see version "5" meet its target."

See also:

Detailed hands-on video of iPhone 5 front panel hits the web

Join the PC World newsletter!

Error: Please check your email address.

Our Back to Business guide highlights the best products for you to boost your productivity at home, on the road, at the office, or in the classroom.

Keep up with the latest tech news, reviews and previews by subscribing to the Good Gear Guide newsletter.

Ashleigh Allsopp

Macworld U.K.
Show Comments

Essentials

Lexar® JumpDrive® S57 USB 3.0 flash drive

Learn more >

Microsoft L5V-00027 Sculpt Ergonomic Keyboard Desktop

Learn more >

Mobile

Lexar® JumpDrive® S45 USB 3.0 flash drive 

Learn more >

Exec

Lexar® JumpDrive® C20c USB Type-C flash drive 

Learn more >

Audio-Technica ATH-ANC70 Noise Cancelling Headphones

Learn more >

Lexar® Professional 1800x microSDHC™/microSDXC™ UHS-II cards 

Learn more >

HD Pan/Tilt Wi-Fi Camera with Night Vision NC450

Learn more >

Budget

Back To Business Guide

Click for more ›

Most Popular Reviews

Latest News Articles

Resources

PCW Evaluation Team

Azadeh Williams

HP OfficeJet Pro 8730

A smarter way to print for busy small business owners, combining speedy printing with scanning and copying, making it easier to produce high quality documents and images at a touch of a button.

Andrew Grant

HP OfficeJet Pro 8730

I've had a multifunction printer in the office going on 10 years now. It was a neat bit of kit back in the day -- print, copy, scan, fax -- when printing over WiFi felt a bit like magic. It’s seen better days though and an upgrade’s well overdue. This HP OfficeJet Pro 8730 looks like it ticks all the same boxes: print, copy, scan, and fax. (Really? Does anyone fax anything any more? I guess it's good to know the facility’s there, just in case.) Printing over WiFi is more-or- less standard these days.

Ed Dawson

HP OfficeJet Pro 8730

As a freelance writer who is always on the go, I like my technology to be both efficient and effective so I can do my job well. The HP OfficeJet Pro 8730 Inkjet Printer ticks all the boxes in terms of form factor, performance and user interface.

Michael Hargreaves

Windows 10 for Business / Dell XPS 13

I’d happily recommend this touchscreen laptop and Windows 10 as a great way to get serious work done at a desk or on the road.

Aysha Strobbe

Windows 10 / HP Spectre x360

Ultimately, I think the Windows 10 environment is excellent for me as it caters for so many different uses. The inclusion of the Xbox app is also great for when you need some downtime too!

Mark Escubio

Windows 10 / Lenovo Yoga 910

For me, the Xbox Play Anywhere is a great new feature as it allows you to play your current Xbox games with higher resolutions and better graphics without forking out extra cash for another copy. Although available titles are still scarce, but I’m sure it will grow in time.

Featured Content

Latest Jobs

Don’t have an account? Sign up here

Don't have an account? Sign up now

Forgot password?