The bad economy may be a boon to relatively inexpensive open-source IP PBXs, which one study says already account for nearly 18% of all PBXs installed last year in North American business networks.
Because they are generally less expensive, open source products may become attractive to more corporate users as their budgets are cut, laying the groundwork for a growth spurt, according to the recent study by Eastern Management Group.
"The price of [open-source] PBXs is so low as to attract more than passing attention," says John Malone, president and CEO of the group.
If the study is accurate, it means that open source vendors as a group are selling more PBX phone lines than any single PBX vendor that makes the usual list of market leaders.
The study relies on market models and more than 7,000 interviews with IT executives, vendors and resellers and claims to find 2.85 million VoIP endpoints that have gone uncounted in traditional tallies, including its own.
Via surveys of IT executives as well as open-source PBX vendors and VARS, the study concluded that use of this gear grew 40 percent last year and will increase 40 percent in 2009, partially fueled by tighter IT budgets.
According to his North American numbers on PBX and key systems measured by lines, open source systems account for 17.94 percent. He credits the Asterisk open source PBX, with Nortel comes in second for 85 percent of those deployments or 15.24 percent of overall installations last year.
Nortel comes in second with behind all open source with 16.56 percent, Cisco comes in third with 12.53 percent and Avaya comes in fourth with 11 percent.
However, Eastern's findings are at odds with studies done by other market analysis firms that follow PBX sales. For example, Infonetics sets growth of overall PBX sales at 1% in 2008 not the 40% Eastern Management Group reports, says Mattheus Machowinski, a directing analyst for Infonetics. "We expect the market to stabilize in 2010, resume growth in 2011 and hit double-digit annual growth by 2012," he says.
He ranks Nortel, Cisco and Avaya as one, two and three for sales as measured by lines in 2008, but had open source vendor marketshare below 1 percent.
He seemed surprised at the Eastern results. "It's provocative; its headline grabbing," he said. "If it's really almost 20 percent, don't you think the PBX market [as reported by himself and other analysts] would have declined quite a bit last year?" he says. "I would have expected the PBX market to have plunged."